Exports: The Market Has Not Imagined Good.

　　 Data released by the General Administration of Customs on 10 may show that in July this year, China's export value and total import and export value hit. financial crisis The monthly high is the highest since July 2008.

Reality is not as optimistic as figures.

"Some time ago." Investigation and research Once, the export situation is not as good as we expected. Our concerns are in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year. A customs official said.

The Ministry of Commerce, which is in charge of foreign trade, is basically in line with the above judgment, and thinks that the export situation is not stable this year. Therefore, the relevant foreign trade policies in the second half of this year will still strive for stability, involving policies or fine-tuning of industries with high pollution and high energy consumption. "

　　 The market is not so good.

The above customs officers have handled the general trade and processing in the past 7 months. Trade The growth situation is analyzed.

He said that in terms of figures, the growth rate of exports under processing trade is obviously lower than that of general trade. "

According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China's exports amounted to US $850 billion 490 million, an increase of 35.6%. Among them, exports under general trade amounted to 390 billion 120 million US dollars, an increase of 38.3%, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of exports. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 629 billion 530 million US dollars, an increase of 36.1%. Of which, exports amounted to 398 billion 410 million US dollars, an increase of 32.4%, which is lower than that of the same period. "

"Processing trade is more obvious than foreign demand, which means that the effective demand abroad is not as fast as imagined." The customs officers said, "we believe that most of the orders are still in the replenishment stage."

"The growth rate of imports under processing trade is greater than that of exports, which means that the materials for enterprises to prepare for production in China are larger than those exported, and the growth of external demand has not reached the situation where the enterprises are optimistic. Of course, there is a problem of production cycle. " The customs officer said.

He also said that with the arrival of the inventory cycle of enterprises in important trading partners such as Europe and the United States, the demand for Chinese products by foreign enterprises may be further weakened.

On the other hand, Asian emerging market countries headed by India are ushering in a surge of interest rates, which is not good news for China's exports.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, analyzes the tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which will inevitably affect domestic demand and indirectly lead to a decline in China's exports. From the internal environment, the pressure of medium and long term wage increases, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the profit margins of export enterprises are narrowed. The accumulation of a number of factors may have a greater impact on the growth rate of exports.