True Gold Is Not Afraid Of Fire &Nbsp; It Is Also The Strongest Cotton After Adjustment.

The near future,

In February 28th, the market rebounded sharply, and cotton was in the lead, sealed to the daily limit, and continued to rise sharply yesterday, once again showing the strength of the best varieties of the fundamentals.

From the market sentiment, compared with the adjustment in November last year, this adjustment of market sentiment is relatively stable.

Although experienced a sharp decline, but in recent months, the contract did not appear in November last year's big discount in the market.

On the spot side, China's cotton 328 index also stood at 30000 points steadily, and did not follow the fall in the price.

Supply and demand determine commodity prices.

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Because of the natural attributes of agricultural products and the constraints of time and planting area, the output will not increase significantly in the short term.

From the domestic situation, the latest cotton production released last year is 5 million 940 thousand tons, while the annual demand is about 11 million tons.

Even considering the consumption inhibiting effect brought by the price increase, the annual cotton consumption in China will be maintained at over 10 million tons in view of its irreplaceable nature, thus making nearly 40% of the cotton consumption in the cotton year need to be replenished by imports.

At present, the price of American cotton is much higher than that of domestic cotton, which is also higher than that of futures cotton. The imported inflation pressure is huge.

According to the author's understanding, this year, enterprises with import quotas are very cautious about purchasing imported cotton and prefer Xinjiang cotton.

On the other hand, the planting area of our country is increasing very limited.

According to previous Cotton Association, cotton information network and other institutions of investigation, the national new year's planting area growth may be between 5%-10%.

The United States Department of agriculture predicts that the cotton planting area in the United States will increase by 2 million acres this year, an increase of more than 20%.

Even if the domestic output reaches 7 million 500 thousand tons -800 million tons, it needs at least 2 million tons of imports to ensure domestic consumption demand, which will account for nearly 25% of the world's 8 million ton trade volume. China's demand is still the leading force in cotton prices.

In addition, the market expects the national cotton reserves to run out, and the state control means may only rely on monetary policy.

With the gradual disappearance of demographic dividend, domestic labor costs continue to rise.

Cotton planting is time-consuming and laborious, which has limited attraction to the younger generation of farmers.

From the perspective of national development trend, in recent years, the Xinjiang area has been developing rapidly.

Although the bull market of cotton is far from over from the basic point of view, as the author mentioned in the annual report, the annual high point is still expected to reach 40 thousand yuan, but it does not mean that the trend of V reversal will happen in the near future.

Regardless of the technical level is not solid enough, that is, on the macro level, there are also some uncertainties.

The recent devaluation of the Vietnamese shield seems to be a warning bell.

If the RMB continues to appreciate, and the decline in competitiveness caused by the increase in labor costs, the textile industry may shift to neighboring countries such as India, which will become a long-term negative asset for cotton.

In addition, in terms of inventory, according to the latest report, commercial inventories are at 3 million 570 thousand tons, which is at a high level throughout the whole year, while industrial stocks of 1 million 260 thousand tons, or about 40 days of cotton consumption, are also at a high level.

If the latter enterprises take part in the inventory method to postpone procurement, they may reduce the demand for short-term market.

No matter how the market develops, from the perspective of cost and market demand, the 1109 contract 27000 yuan will be a very solid base, which can be added to the long line.

And the strongest support for far 1201 is probably 23000, that is, the price of cotton this year.