Policy Release Is Not Around High Oil Prices.

Oil on economic growth, inflation and monetary policy It is important that the latter affect profits and asset prices. Recent international crude oil prices continue to rise. In the early February, the average price of WTI crude oil futures was about $101.8 per barrel, which began to rise sharply in mid February. At present, the price of WTI futures has approached us $110 / barrel. What is the future trend of high oil prices? Will the rise in oil prices bring upward pressure on the upstream PPI and bring inflationary pressure?

　 Reason

Geopolitical factors are the main characters of disturbance.

Recent international crude oil prices continue to rise. In the early February, the average price of WTI crude oil futures was about $101.8 per barrel, which began to rise sharply from the beginning of February. At present, the price of WTI futures has approached us $110 / barrel. What are the reasons behind soaring crude oil prices?

"Mainly geopolitical factors, and now the global economic outlook is not good enough to sustain substantial demand expansion factors." Chen Zhong, manager of Nanfang futures research and development department, said that in other words, when the geopolitical crisis subsided, then oil prices would come back. The dollar factor has some effect, but now it seems to have retired. The trend of oil prices will still depend on supply and geopolitical crisis. There will be no problem with supply, and oil prices will naturally fall back.

Huang Lin, deputy director of the Research Institute of Soochow securities (601555, stock bar), told reporters that there are mainly 4 factors in the rise in oil prices. The first is geopolitical crisis. Iran is constrained by the west to reduce oil output, which is a stimulus to oil prices. In the short run, this is the main reason. Secondly, the developed economies in the United States, Europe and Japan are slow to implement because of the slow recovery. Quantitative easing Monetary policy, the introduction of this policy, has also supported the price of oil. Third, the recovery of the US economy and the increase in demand have resulted in the increase in the demand for the recovery of the US economy, whether in essence increasing or increasing from expectation. This is another reason for the rise in oil prices. Finally, the emerging market began to shift from inflation prevention and tight money to growth protection last year, and monetary policy is also adjusting to a loose direction, which is also a release of liquidity, including the revival of demand caused by economic recovery, all of which are the reasons for the sharp rise in international oil prices.

Driven by high international crude oil prices, international oil prices have risen to varying degrees. As of February 29th, the change rate of crude oil in three places has risen to 6.12%, more than 4%, and the pressure on domestic refined oil prices has increased. Although the opening of the price adjustment window is still open for some time, the atmosphere of the domestic oil product market has already been driven by a certain trend.

In February 29th, Sinopec and PetroChina Guangdong standard IV 93 gasoline reached 9720 yuan / ton, while in February 1st, the price was 9250 to 9300 yuan / ton, and 400 yuan per ton.

　　 trend

The future remains high.

As a basic energy source, the future trend of crude oil prices deserves our attention.

"Oil prices are still rising. Now that oil prices are no longer a problem of demand, it is a question of supply. Therefore, judging from the macro-economic quality or not, it may be better to judge supply and demand by judging the rise and fall of oil prices. We clearly see that London's oil price is much higher than that of the US oil price, which is also a reflection of the difference in the price of oil supply in the region. Chen Zhong further indicated that OPEC actually accounts for only about 1/4 of the total supply. Since the beginning of this year, conflicts between North Africa and Arabia in the Middle East have been constantly increasing. Geopolitics is a major factor in the strong oil price. Although a single country's exports account for a small proportion, problems in many successive countries will seriously affect the stability of supply.

For the future price of crude oil, Chen Zhong said it would go up gradually, but it would not go too fast. "Because the rise in crude oil prices will soon spread to the downstream industrial chains, and will aggravate the pressure of economic recovery. So it's hard to look up and see $120 to $140. And oil price is a watershed for us $120. If we exceed $120, OPEC may have to release spare capacity, and the main importing countries may have to reduce imports. Bio energy is likely to increase production.

The Bohai Sea Futures Finance Researcher Du Peixia told reporters, "in the long run, the US economy is recovering and the demand for crude oil is increasing gradually, so the price of crude oil will continue to rise." But I think short term crude oil is under the pressure of adjustment. "

She gave three reasons. First of all, due to the tense situation in Iran, oil prices were relatively fast, but the recent performance is not as fast as before. On the one hand, the United States is facing the presidential election, so it will not put too much energy on the Iran issue, and the United States is the largest demand country for crude oil, with the largest consumption. Therefore, Iran will be more cautious in dealing with the issue. Secondly, from the perspective of demand, the demand may decrease slightly with the gradual warming of the temperature. After the summer temperature rises, energy will be needed again. Now, at a relatively mild time, there will be a seasonal decline. Finally, technically, it has been on the rise for nearly 1 months since February, with a long sell-off and a technical correction.

"These three aspects are factors that are facing a short-term callback of crude oil, but the rate of callbacks will not be very deep, and will not fall below US $100, which is expected to oscillate between us $100 and US $110. As a basic energy source, the sharp rise and fall of crude oil has great impact on the economic recovery, which is not what Americans want to see. "

　　 Influence

High oil prices generate imported inflation

As we all know, oil is very important for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy, and the latter affects profits and asset prices. Will the rise in oil prices bring upward pressure on upstream PPI and bring inflationary pressure?

Guo Hai securities (000750, stock bar) macroeconomic analyst Zou Lu told reporters that the rise in oil prices will have an impact on PPI. At present, PPI has been rebounded for several months in a row. But in the short term, inflation pressure will not be great, and the upstream price increase will be beneficial to the industry.

"Overall, the high price of oil will be inflationary, but it's not going to be a reflection of inflation. I don't think we need to worry too much in the short term." Zou Lu said, now the pressure of non food is relatively large, but this is a relatively big drop in food. Generally speaking, CPI will maintain a downward trend in the first half of this year. It will probably stabilize in the middle of the year. However, if oil prices recover slowly, the inflation pressure will gradually rise in the second half of the year, and gradually increase; if the short-term rise is very fast, it will form a pressure on the economic recovery; if the subsequent rise is not very high, the pressure will not be great.

Huang Lin said that oil prices remained high. Imported inflation Pressure is high, especially upstream PPI will form an upward pressure. But the upward pressure from PPI to CPI will not be as smooth as it was during the boom. This is mainly due to the upward pressure on PPI and the demand side of the consumer side, as the economy is recovering but not yet strong. For example, PMI data rebounded only 0.5%, despite 3 consecutive months of ups and downs, but not very strong. When the rally is not very strong, the demand side will not be very strong. The upstream raw materials will not be transmitted to CPI quickly, but in the middle industries, on the one hand, the production data is rising. On the other hand, the downstream demand is not very strong, and the profits of the middle enterprises will be squeezed. To be sure, this transmission exists, and the pressure of imported inflation is also there. "

It is worth noting that if future inflation is under pressure, will this affect the relaxation process of monetary policy in the future? "The pressure of inflation will increase in the second half of this year, which will also constrain the extent of domestic policy easing and will create pressure on economic growth." Zou Lu judged that "the black swan event can not be ruled out. The inflation pressure in the first half of this year is smaller, but it is hard to say in the second half of the year." I expect CPI to pick up in the second half of the year, while PPI will pick up earlier, and the two quarter will probably rebound. If the inflation rate is not high enough in the second half of the year, the monetary policy will remain stable. If the inflation level returns to 4% in the second half of the year, it will not only have pressure on economic growth, but also restrict the space of monetary policy, which will not be very beneficial to the overall economic situation.

Huang Lin also believes that although the overall price is downward, the central bank's monetary policy is still more cautious. This can be seen from the statements made by the central bank's monetary policy implementation report in the three and fourth quarter of last year. In the three quarter, the central bank referred to the strong internal power of China's economic growth itself, showing that it is more optimistic about economic growth. But in the four quarter report, it indicated that the Chinese economy itself had strong internal driving force and was optimistic about economic growth. In the fourth quarter, it referred to the "downward pressure of economic growth and the pressure of price rising coexist". This change in macroeconomic judgment shows that the central bank has become more cautious.

"I think there is uncertainty in the caution of the central bank, and this uncertainty is due to the uncertainty of CPI, and the pressure caused by this imported inflation." Huang Lin further said that the central bank is facing "dilemma", the economic downturn needs to be relaxed, but prices are uncertain. If we relax, prices will rise again. Therefore, we will be very cautious in the future and still maintain the trend of fine-tuning. "It is expected that CPI will come down in February, or even below 3.5%, to end this negative interest rate, but this does not mean that CPI will continue to slide. It is expected that CPI will rise again in March. Imported inflation has a certain lag period. As oil prices have risen, it is possible that CPI will be reflected in March or April. "

　　 investment opportunity

Benefit from the raw material substitution industry

High oil prices usually reduce the profits of the manufacturing and downstream oil and gas industries. Donghai Securities Bao Qing, chief strategist at the Institute, said: "the impact on the stock market is more negative, and the economy is not very good at the moment. The rising cost will lead to a downward pressure on inflation and corporate profits."

So what opportunities do we have? Oil extraction, oil equipment manufacturing and oil transportation are undoubtedly the direct beneficiaries of the rise in oil prices. First of all, as the upstream industry, the oil extraction industry is undoubtedly the most direct benefit from the rise in oil prices; secondly, the high oil prices also directly promote the acceleration of oil development, so oil related equipment manufacturing and oil transportation industry will inevitably benefit from the improvement of the industry boom.

In addition, the continuous rising of international oil prices will drive the overall rise of energy prices, and the coal industry is the most directly affected industry. As long as the impact of high oil prices on the macro-economy is within the proper limits, the coal industry as an oil substitute will benefit indirectly.

Third, the cost pressure of high oil prices on petrochemical industry will be good for coal chemical industry and calcium carbide industry, and coal and carbide products will benefit a lot from chemical enterprises. Coal chemical enterprises with coal as raw materials have larger cost advantages than coal and natural gas as raw materials, such as coal tar, synthetic ammonia and methanol, and their products can get the corresponding price increase with the increase of oil prices.

Finally, the rise in oil prices will directly transmit to the energy sector such as electricity, which will increase the price of electricity products. But unlike the coal industry as a whole, the direct benefit is that the impact on the power industry can not be generalized. The rise in coal prices has led to an increase in the cost of thermal power. However, the cost of hydropower, wind power and nuclear power has not changed. Therefore, the rise of oil prices will split up for the power industry, and the advantages of new energy enterprises will be highlighted.