The Price Of National Reserve Cotton Increased By &Nbsp; Why Did The Market React So Plain?

In March 1st, the state announced 2012

According to the author's analysis, the improvement of domestic cotton purchase and storage price has some positive effects on the surface, but in fact it is mixed with obvious bad factors.

First of all, the new year's purchase and storage price has increased, but there is still a gap with expectation.

There is no wall in the world.

A month ago, the market had spread the news that the purchase price of national cotton would be raised. At that time, the market had at least 20400 yuan / ton, 20790 yuan / ton, 21000 yuan / ton three kinds of storage and purchase price. At present, the state officially confirmed the purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton, although there was no "step in place", which was higher than that of 2011 yuan in 19800 yuan / ton, but in fact, in recent years, when the planting cost increased by 10%~20% and the cotton farmers' income gradually declined, it was obvious that the current price of 20400 yuan / ton was only a lower value, and the gap between the market expectation and the market was obvious.

I believe that the short-term good news, zhengmian or Chong Gao trend, but the pursuit of continuity is not strong, it is recommended that timely "good luck."

Secondly, the existence of the purchase and storage price will further increase the cost gap between domestic and overseas cotton, and the market of the downstream gauze will be hard to return.

As we all know, since the 19800 yuan / ton purchase was officially launched in September 8, 2011, this policy has been debated over and over, especially in spite of the sharp fall in international cotton prices. The domestic cotton price has been sitting on the Diaoyutai, and has been hovering near the 19800 yuan / ton line.

As of February 29th, the total storage volume of 2011/2012 was 2 million 688 thousand and 300 tons. It is estimated that the total amount of storage and storage will reach more than 3 million tons at the end of March 31st, accounting for more than 40% of the total output of 7 million 200 thousand tons in the year. Although this policy has greatly alleviated the supply pressure caused by cotton production this year, the price gap between domestic and foreign cotton has been virtually increased because of the 19800 yuan / ton fixed price purchase and storage mode. The price gap between domestic and imported cotton has been around 1000 yuan, and the 3 cotton price of India, Pakistan and other countries 10300 yuan ~12500 tons / ton, forming a huge cotton gap of 8000 yuan / ton.

In addition, the price of cotton will be weakened.

On the whole, as the competitiveness of textile market weakened and business performance changed, the current cotton textile market was gradually far from the bull market in 2010. The short-term good will still be difficult to cover the long and medium term production and marketing pressure. Raising the purchase price to a certain extent may stabilize the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to grow cotton, but it will also deepen the contradiction between supply and demand in the upstream and downstream markets.

It is suggested that textile enterprises should strive to increase domestic market development while maintaining export market. In the ten major efforts of the state in the 12th Five-Year plan, the strategy of expanding domestic demand is the top priority.

Therefore, the domestic cotton purchase and storage price increase and the state's intention to expand domestic demand come down in one continuous line.