Anta'S Performance Is Very Tangled, And Income And Stock Prices Are Inconsistent.

Anta (2020.HK), the most market capitalization company in sports goods, released its interim results in August 9th, with revenue falling 12%, profits down 17%, and the first 85 million 500 thousand yuan provision for bad debts.

However, the stock price has fallen by half since the beginning of this year, and the current interest rate is about 10%, triggering the short sale of "closed hands" and investors who favor high interest rates. The stock price surged 17% yesterday.

"The worst is just beginning."

By the end of June this year,

Anta's turnover was 3 billion 930 million, down 12% year on year, and gross margin fell 1 percentage points to 42%.

Lai Shixian, the chief operating officer of Anta, said at a press conference that the industry as a whole is "competitive with discounts", coupled with the rising business cost of the sandwich, the profit slid to structural problems, some companies are difficult to avoid.

When can it improve? He means that the industry must be integrated in large scale to eliminate some weaker brands.

According to the fund manager attending the investor conference, the management revealed that many small brands in Jinjiang, Fujian had gone bankrupt.

Jinjiang is a hub for Anta and many sporting goods companies.

The order meeting in the first quarter of 2013 was also disclosed yesterday. The company said, "with the new wholesale discount rate, there will be a decrease of 20% to 30% in the first quarter next year."

At present, the discount rate of Anta is around 58%, that is, the distributor price of 100 yuan retail shoes is about 42 yuan, and the discount rate is in the middle reaches of the industry.

How much is the new discount rate? The management does not respond positively, indicating that it will be determined for different distributors.

In addition to the drop in volume and price, the other "signal" that Anta worried investors was 85 million 500 thousand of the accounts receivable provision.

Ling Shengping, chief financial officer and vice president, said that the provision was only based on the accounting prudence principle, rather than the need for write-off.

Lai Shixian also stressed that Anta's priority now is to "stabilize distributors and key stores".

The fund managers disagreed with the optimistic statements of management that the first appearance of bad debt provision was a bad sign, reflecting that "distributors' money is on the goods, and how can they buy new products in the future?" Anta's accounts receivable turnover in the first half of the year rose to 35 days from the 24 day of the end of last year, and expected to rise in the future.

"In 2010, it said that the industry will enter a cold winter, and it may take two years to recover.

But over the past two years, more bad signals have emerged. I think it's just time to spend time, at least the industry is still making money.

But in the future, the situation will not improve, or even the profit will turn out.

The source said.

In addition, in the first half of, sales of advertising and publicity dropped by 2.2 percentage points to 10.4%, but some investors thought that this did not mean that Anta reduced marketing expenses: "such a low proportion is not sustainable.

The cost reduction in the first half of the year was mainly due to the fact that the Olympic sponsorship fees were not accounted for, and CBA was snatched away by Lining.

As for the so-called "Olympic effect", it seems very weak from the inventory situation: Anta's inventory turnover in the first half of the year rose from 36 days to 50 days, the highest in history.

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Stock price counterattack

Yesterday's report was not good enough. Yesterday, Anta's stock price soared after the afternoon performance announcement, closing up 17%. Why? The broker said that because the accumulated short selling disk was too much, as long as Anta's performance was not too bad, the short sellers would temporarily fill in the "rest".

According to Bloomberg data, on Friday (August 3rd), Anta's short selling ratio reached 56%, or 100 yuan, with a turnover of 56 yuan for short selling.

If dividends can be sent in the second half of the year, the dividend rate will be 10%, and there will be a selling point when the Hang Seng Index has an average dividend yield of only 3%.

"On the one hand, dividends will attract investors with good interest, and on the other hand, investors will be more expensive to borrow short sellers. These two reasons will lead to short supply of shares and share prices will rise rapidly in the short term."

The fund manager said.

He added that in recent years, the rapid expansion of the mainland's retail industry and the rapid shrinkage of the stock market were very common. The surge of Anta yesterday was "a replica of the market reaction" after the first quarter results of Esprit (330.HK).

But the stock price is ultimately decided by the company's profit performance, and the profit is bad, so the stock price is difficult to go up.

As of press release, Anta shares traded near HK $4.7, close to 08 years' tsunami price.

In addition, in the first half of, although the performance was reversed, the dividend payment remained unchanged at HK $0.23 per share.