President Of The Knitting Industry Association Interprets The Trend Of Industry Development

< p > < strong > Zhang Yansheng, secretary and researcher of the national development and Reform Commission academic committee, excerpt: < /strong > < /p >
< p > according to the theme of this year, I will mainly talk about three issues. The first question I want to talk about is the sentence in the decision of the third plenary session, that is to say, we must deepen the reform comprehensively at a new historical starting point. So it will involve a question about what kind of new historical starting point for a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a >?
< p > > therefore, I think the past nine years of the forum, what have we experienced in the textile industry? Nine years ago it was 2005, and what did our textile people experience? We have experienced the reform of the exchange rate system, and the exchange rate reform is an unforgettable change for the textile people. That is, the appreciation of the renminbi has increased significantly, and has risen to 36% today. < /p >
What are the second deep-rooted influences on the textile industry? That is, when p was the 70 year of global textile integration in 2005, the achievements of the global textile industry were open. That is, the Sino US agreement and the agreement between China and Europe make the textile industry face the trade sanctions and conflicts of the worst. < /p >
< p > third in 2005, we experienced the transformation of "Lewis turning point". For textile people, low cost is our advantage. From 1995 to 2005, in the Pearl River Delta survey, the wages of migrant workers increased by tens of dollars in 10 years. That is, the labor cost before we went through a turning point of Lewis, that is, the long term stay at a very low level, and the real income of migrant workers continued to decline during the period of high growth. This fact came to an end in 2005. Therefore, today, the excellence of our textile people is directly related to the adjustment, impact and turbulence that we have experienced in the past nine years. < /p >
< p > and what happened in 2007? Why did the US, Japan and Europe import growth have not declined in the three quarter of 2007? On the contrary, the whole country is particularly prominent in the textile "a target=" _blank "href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "> clothing" /a "> a target=" _blank "href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/ "> shoes" href= "category of exports has a significant decline. First, we have experienced the reduction of surplus measures in 2007; second, we have gone through the new labor contract law. Third, we experienced the adjustment of the industry, the adjustment of the 12 overcapacity departments and the pressure of the whole country's structural adjustment. Under such circumstances, we can see that the impact of textile workers is obviously earlier than that of the US financial crisis. < /p >
< p > third time points, that is, we can see the impact of the US crisis in 2009. < /p >
The impact of P on our textile people is the key year in 2012. It is the same for textile people or for the whole country, that is, in 2012, our textile people experienced the adjustment of pressure on the rise of factor cost, the shrinking of global demand and the serious excess capacity. Experienced the upside down of cotton prices, the acceleration of RMB appreciation and the acceleration of labor costs. At the same time, it has experienced the intensification of frictions and the industrial return and the external transfer of industries arising from the re industrialization in Europe and the United States. < /p >
< p > on the other hand, the market faced by our textile people is cut and split by various free trade agreements. All the deceleration we talked about in 2012, from all the changes, we found that 2012 is indeed a very important year. Then we have to ask ourselves one question: why is it so difficult, and GDP has increased from 10.7% to 7.7% in the past ten years, but employment has increased. The answer is simple, that is, the performance of textile workers in the past ten years or the past nine years tells us who will be active in the early adjustment of structural adjustment. < /p >
< p > to the present stage, that is, the stage of comprehensive deepening reform in 2014. For textile people, my expectation is that from 2014, textile people will take the initiative to win the reform bonus step by step. That is to say, the data of the past 35 years are classified according to three broad categories. One is the energy industry, the first is the basic material industry, the other is the finished products and semi finished products in the textile industry. From the past 35 years, it is not difficult to find out which period the fastest growth period of TFP in our textile industry is from the south to the WTO. Why is the total factor productivity growth of our textile industry and the whole country growing fastest in 1992 to 2001? The reason is simple: reform. < /p >
Therefore, from this point of view, that is the first question I want to talk about. In the past nine years, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile people < /a > really stands for a new period that needs to be adjusted, transformed and upgraded in order to win our productivity growth. P Then, we will find that from the export situation, there are several sets of data. Under the same policy environment and external demand environment, the export growth rate of textiles, clothing and footwear last year was 11.5%, significantly higher than the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products and the export growth rate of high-tech products. This year, it is predicted that the growth rate of textile, clothing and footwear exports will be higher than that of last year. It is likely to reach 13.4%, which will be significantly higher than the export growth rate of electromechanical products this year and the growth rate of exports of high-tech products. On the other hand, last year or this year, the export growth rate of private enterprises was significantly higher than that of foreign invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises in all situations. It can also be found that the export growth of general trade dominated by domestic enterprises is significantly higher than that of processing trade export dominated by foreign investment enterprises. Therefore, all data give us a message, that is, at present, it has reached a new historical starting point. Its structure and its internal laws of economy are undergoing a fundamental change. This is my first question. < /p >
< p > second problems, for textile people, our textile industry is in a critical period of transformation of the old and new growth mode. That is to say, we should continue to pay attention to the data of the textile industry. My personal suggestion is that the trend line of the old mode is before 2012, and the trend line of the new pattern after 2012. Every business and every one of us has to answer that I am continuing to stay in the pattern before 2012. I still turn to the next 35 years. We need to explore new models for development. < /p >