Ye Tan: Storage Is Just The Rations For Overwinter.

Since the complete context can not be directly obtained from the report, we can only speculate that Zhang's proposal may have two paths:

One is to lend directly to enterprises to invest in the country, but this is equivalent to sending Renminbi again through the way of foreign exchange settlement. This is a replay of the old tune. Second, it may be lent to enterprises to invest overseas, which is equal to taking up some of the policy functions of the state import and export bank and the State Development Bank, and raising funds for overseas investment with low interest loans.

Is this feasible?

Capital outflow is increasing.

China has become a net capital exporter.

In 2014, China Realized Foreign Direct Investment of 116 billion US dollars, plus Chinese enterprises' reinvestment in overseas profits and investment through third locations. The actual external investment scale was about US $140 billion, which exceeded that of China's utilization of foreign capital by about US $20 billion.

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Confidence is in the doldrums.

The central bank website announced that as of December 2014, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 38430 billion US dollars, down from 39932 billion US dollars in June last year, and last year it also decreased by nearly 480 billion US dollars compared with the previous year, the lowest in 10 years.

In January this year, the foreign exchange balance of financial institutions was 29 trillion and 300 billion yuan, a decrease of 108 billion 261 million yuan.

The State Administration of foreign exchange disclosed that China's capital and financial deficit amounted to $91 billion 200 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, the highest in 16 years.

Economic data have been in the doldrums for several months, the RMB continued to depreciate, and the Fed's interest rate increase is expected to be a centrifuge for foreign capital.

Foreign investment data is indeed on the rise.

According to the statistics of Ministry of Commerce, the actual use of foreign capital increased by 29.4% in January compared with the same period last year, reaching 13 billion 920 million US dollars.

In the same month, 2266 new foreign-invested enterprises were set up nationwide, an increase of 31.8% compared with the same period last year, and the contracted foreign capital amounted to US $33 billion 210 million, an increase of 126.2% over the same period last year, much higher than the growth rate at the end of last year.

Unfortunately, the above data failed to boost market confidence in the renminbi.

In February 28th, the Central Bank of China cut interest rates. In March 2nd, the spot dollar exchange rate reached the lowest point of 6.2733 yuan in the intraday market, and the renminbi fell by about 1.98% over the middle price, reaching a new low of over 29 months. The median price continued to depreciate for second consecutive days, reaching its lowest level in the last 4 months.

In January 2015, the State Administration of foreign exchange issued the data on foreign exchange settlement and foreign exchange payment on behalf of banks in January 2015. It showed that the deficit was 50 billion 400 million yuan in January, and there was a deficit for the second consecutive month.

In the long run, confidence in the currency is built on the rise of quality and efficiency of investment.

Whether it is domestic investment or international investment, there is no difference between the advantages and disadvantages. Investment is only a point of profit or profit.

To distinguish whether an investment is good or bad is not about where you invest, whether it looks tall or not, but what the real return of investment is.

The yield is not optimistic.

According to the statistics of the safe, the net income of China's overseas investment in 2011 was -268 billion, and in 2012 it was -235 billion. In 2013, China's foreign investment income deficit was 59 billion 900 million US dollars.

According to Zhang Ming's research article, China, Japan and Germany are overseas main net creditor countries, but between 2004 and 2010, the net proceeds from overseas investment between Japan and Germany were positive, while China's net income of overseas investment was negative for 5 years in 8 years.

At present, China and the United States happen to be perfectly mirrored. China's net income from overseas investment is negative as China's offshore net creditor countries, and the net income of the US as an offshore net debtor country is positive.

Although net income is negative or not equal to overseas investment losses, the quality of overseas investment in China is worse than that in developed countries.

We may have bought a lot of assets but not very well.

Most countries in the world have joined the era of currency devaluation, and the Central Bank of China has to adapt to the general trend.

The international capital market is expecting a substantial increase in the RMB's continued depreciation. With the strong rise of the US dollar and the pressure of capital outflow, the willingness of foreign exchange settlement will be reduced, and more people will keep the US dollar.

Many people have the idea of foreign exchange reserves, but foreign exchange reserves are not the actual payment currencies. Giving 1/10 of foreign exchange reserves to enterprises as a form of credit is no doubt a matter of hope.

It is not as direct and cheap as the central bank to issue and distribute the underlying currency directly. It is better to relax policies and encourage internationalized enterprises to earn more investment profits.

No matter what strategy, we must have market-oriented thinking and enterprise thinking.

The domestic economic situation remains in a downturn during the pition, and the RMB will depreciate for a long time, and foreign exchange reserves will hardly increase again.

Based on this background, it is more realistic to keep foreign reserves in the winter.