Risk Prevention Has Become The Recent Regulatory Policy Of The Central Bank Of China And The Ministry Of Finance.

With the emergence of economic and financial data in the first three quarters of this week, while the pressure of steady economic growth has been slightly reduced during the year, risk prevention has become the focus of recent regulatory policies of the Central Bank of China and the Ministry of finance.

September

After the sharp fall in the amount of money, the central bank launched the massive MLF to put money into the market, which means that it is allowed to reduce or postpone again. The extension of the reverse repurchase period also means the short-term cost of capital is rising, and the liquidity is short term.

The central bank's recent water pfer attitude after the National Day holiday was released again in the open market this week.

In fact, the central bank tightened the tap water last week and coordinated with the building control policy. Only a week later, it turned to water again. Is there a more important purpose that requires the central bank to make an urgent switch? The central bank carried out 660 billion yuan counter repurchase in the open market this week.

In addition, the time limit for reverse repurchase has also increased.

Last week, the central bank only carried out 7 days and 14 days of reverse repurchase, and in the latter part of last week, it only did 7 days of reverse repurchase, "shrinking and shrinking". The intention of receiving water was very obvious. But this week, it gradually returned to 14 days and 28 days.

In addition, the central bank launched a massive MLF (medium-term lending facility), which only invested 41 billion 500 million yuan last week, but this week the net investment increased to 330 billion yuan.

The intensity of water replenishment increased suddenly after a week, but it happened that the devaluation of the renminbi intensified this week. Whether the central bank avoided the potential fluctuations of the financial market caused by the flow of funds triggered by the devaluation of the renminbi, so it is worth pondering over the situation of stabilizing the situation by releasing water.

Chen Ji, senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Development Research Center, believes that the recent adjustment of the reverse repurchase period and the rise and fall of the operation scale reflect that the central bank has further strengthened the flexibility of the open market operation.

The 14 and 28 day reverse repurchase operations were carried out.

The short-term liquidity is relatively stable and controllable, while the medium-term aspect needs to be prevented. MLF addition is also a supplement to the medium and long term funding gap.

As long as the total market liquidity remains intact, even some structural tensions are controllable. After all, monetary policy should not be too lenient. The central bank now attaches more importance to controlling the pace of credit growth.

Fan Lei, a macroeconomic researcher at Mizuho Securities, said that the data in the first three quarters of China were in line with expectations. From a micro perspective, the trend of economic stabilization and rebound is quite obvious. There is no need for further stimulation at present.

In the open market, the probability of further easing liquidity is very low, and the central bank is expected to maintain a neutral and tight operation.

In the first three quarters, China's economy grew by 6.7%. From our country, we still have the ability to resist external shocks.

In the future, the foreign exchange bureau will pay equal attention to facilitation and risk prevention. It will continue to strengthen cross-border capital flow monitoring and safeguard China's economic and financial security.

UBS's latest report believes that the recent real estate market fanaticism, the government worried about the real estate bubble expansion, which means that the central bank is unlikely to relax monetary policy.

The decision level will not be in the year.

Or to reduce the risk of easing too strong easing policy signals, exacerbate capital outflow and devaluation pressure, and the central bank will not be able to cut interest rates in the year and 2017.