The Supply Of New Cotton In The Inland Bank Is Not Very Abundant.

In 2017, the central economic conference documents showed that in 2017, monetary policy should be stable and neutral, adjust the currency gate and maintain liquidity basically stable.

We must put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, resolve to deal with a number of risk points, and strive to prevent and control asset bubbles.

From this we speculate that monetary policy in 2017 will be tighter than this year's easing policy, and next year will focus on restraining asset bubbles.

Therefore, from a macro perspective, we expect that the trend of commodities will be weak this year, especially in the early stage, which is too large and has bubbles.

From the survey, though

The main contract was broken 15700 yuan / ton, 16000 yuan / ton, traders, middlemen, and cotton mill's spot quotation of cotton continuously rebounded (100% adopted the hedging pricing mechanism); the main contract of ICE pushed 78 cents / pound to 80 cents / pound, and the Cotlook A index tested the probability of 90 cents / pound pass. In 2017, the cotton reserve wheel was at the bottom price or significantly higher than that of cotton manufacturers and traders, and so on. However, after the festival, the domestic textile mill did not show a larger scope, and the signs of centralized inquiry and replenishment of the warehouse were still dominated by the cotton stock before the digestion period (mainly in the early February, mainly in Cotton Traders).

On the one hand, although the price of cotton yarn and grey cloth has 300-400 yuan per ton and 0.08-0.15 yuan per meter since late January, the acceptance ability of the terminal clothing factory and foreign trade company is still to be observed. Compared with gauze, the cotton has increased and quicker, with the cotton enterprise production and marketing pressure.

On the other hand, due to the central bank's overall interest rate increase during the Spring Festival, the whole market is faced with 2 trillion and 500 billion currency recovery. China's monetary policy has begun to return to a healthy market, and the stock market and bond market will inevitably be greatly affected and spread. The flow of funds in textile, clothing and trading enterprises has been tightened and narrowed.

"The trend is still continuing, and the support for cotton prices, cotton yarns and grey fabrics is not strong enough.

So, short-term support for cotton and investment institutions

What are the factors that affect the bullish (Zheng cotton main contract breaking 16900 yuan / ton, 17000 yuan / ton and even 18000 yuan / ton)?

First of all, a large number of small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises, middlemen resumed production, resumed production, and made short-term stir fry for cotton, cotton yarn, grey cloth and other raw materials demand; secondly, before the Spring Festival, China invested 1 trillion and 850 billion capital through reverse recovery and MLF, and at the same time, put 630 billion money into the market through TLF. The purpose was to maintain the market's demand for cash flow during the Spring Festival and inflow into the commodity market; third, the US dollar index fell below 100 in recent years, and Trump's series of decrees were enforced.

Peripheral commodities continue to rebound; fourth, India, Pakistan and other countries continue to cotton prices high pressure cotton yarn FOB, CNF, CIF prices rose sharply (after Vietnam, India 3/4/5 shipping season cotton yarn quotes adjusted 0.10-0.15 dollars / kg), the difference between the internal and external yarn prices narrowed, cloth factories, middlemen concern and procurement focus back to domestic small and medium-sized cotton mill; finally, considering the high cost of cotton road relocation, the price difference of lint sale inside and outside the territory is only 300-400 yuan / ton, the key point of railway pportation is the supply of the corps cotton, large scale business enterprises (futures into the delivery warehouse) or the large and medium-sized textile factories in the mainland, so the supply of New Territories cotton is not very abundant.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.