China Merchants Securities Apparel Textile Industry Database

Industry operation status

In November 18, Keqiao textile price indices were basically stable.

In November, 18, the fabric price index was 117, the home textile price index was 102, and the domestic price index was 94.

In November 18, the financial indicators of the textile and garment industry improved as a whole.

In November, 18, the gross revenue growth of the textile industry was 1.7%/4.9%, the growth rate of income fell slightly from 0.1PCT last month, and the profit increased by 1.2PCT compared with last month.

The cumulative growth rate of clothing industry revenue was 3.6%, a slight increase of 0.1PCT compared with October; the apparel industry's cumulative growth rate was 10.1%, up by 1.2PCT compared with October.

Demand side (domestic demand)

Macro level: the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 9.1% in the 1-11 months of 2018, and the growth rate decreased by 1.2pct compared with the same period in 17 years.

In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.1pct compared with the same period last year.

Meso level: the 1-11 month retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2pct compared with the same period last year.

The total retail sales of shoes and clothing needle spinning increased by 8.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 0.5pct over the same period last year.

In November, the total retail sales of enterprises increased by 2% on a single month, the growth rate decreased by 5.9pct compared with the same period last year, and the retail sales of footwear and clothing increased by 5.5% compared to the same period last year. The growth rate decreased by 4.0pct compared with the same period last year.

Micro level: in July 18, the number of retail sales of key business enterprises decreased by 2% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 5.7%pct compared with the same period last year.

In July, clothing retail performance was weak, and the retail sales of a hundred garments were reduced by 4.3%, and the decline was increased by 9.6pct over the same period.

Demand side (external demand)

The total export volume of textiles and clothing reached 254 billion US dollars in 1-11 months in 2018, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year.

The total export volume of textiles increased by 9.3% to US $109 billion 300 million compared with the same period last year, and the total export volume of clothing increased by 0.9% to US $144 billion 700 million over the same period last year.

Affected by the slowdown in overseas economic growth and trade friction, the export volume has declined since November, and the export volume of textiles and clothing decreased by 0.3% to 23 billion US dollars in the same month. The monthly exports of textiles and clothing increased by 3.3%, -2.9%

Supply side

In November 18, the growth rate of solid investment in textile industry reached 4.9%, the growth rate increased by 0.4pct compared with October, while the apparel industry in November dropped by 1.9% compared with the same period in October, and the growth rate dropped by 1.6pct compared with October.

Yarn production increased by -3.1% in November, slowing 3.5pct from last month.

In November, the inventory of finished goods in textile industry increased by 7.1%, an increase of 1.8pct compared with October, and the increase of finished goods inventory in garment industry was 6.3%, down by 0.1pct compared with last month.

Cost side

1) gold price: the average price of domestic gold in December was 279 yuan / gram, 1.86% higher than that in November, and the average price of foreign gold in December rose 2.63% to 1253 dollars / ounce compared with November.

2) cotton price: cotton price: the average cotton price in December dropped 1% to 15406 yuan / ton from last month.

The price of outer cotton: the price of cotton in December dropped 0.93% to 14882 yuan / ton compared with November, and the difference between inside and outside cotton price was 524 yuan, which was 16 yuan less than cotton price difference inside and outside November.

3) the US Department of agriculture (USDA) released the December 2018 global cotton supply and demand forecast (2018/2019). It is estimated that the world's cotton production will be 25 million 853 thousand tons in 2018/2019, the domestic consumption will be 27 million 353 thousand tons, the final inventory will be 15 million 936 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will be 58.26%.

It is estimated that China's cotton output will be 5 million 879 thousand tons, and its consumption volume will be 9 million 36 thousand tons. The final inventory will be 6 million 612 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will be 73.17%.

4) the average price of viscose staple in December decreased by 2.47% to 13820 yuan / ton compared with November. Viscose filament decreased slightly from 0.11% to 37700 yuan / ton compared with last month. The average price of polyester staple in December decreased 2.75% to 8883 yuan / ton compared with November, and the average price of polyester filament in December decreased 4.12% to 8573 yuan / ton.