Fundamentals Remain Bad Polyester Filament Market Will Be Running Weak

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market of polyester filament in the beginning of August has been in a narrow range of strong shocks. This week, the increase is obvious. As of September 20th, the average price of polyester POY (150D/48F) rose to 1.89% yuan / ton, up 1.89% from the beginning of the week, down 33.01% from the same period last year. The average price of polyester DYT (150D/48F low elastic) market was 9407 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from the beginning of the week, down 28.69% from the same period last year. The average price of polyester FDY (150D/96F) market was 8073 yuan / ton, up 1.17% from the beginning of the week, decreasing by 31.68% over the same period. Specifically, the first half of the week is boosted by raw materials, and the market is booming. When the terminal enterprises are buying or selling, the purchasing enthusiasm has been significantly improved. The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have continuously raised the price of 100-200 yuan / ton, but with the raw material going down, the price of polyester has remained stable for half a week.

In the raw material market, Saudi Arabia was attacked last weekend, resulting in the rally of chemical products at the beginning of the week, and PTA rose more than 3% on the two day. However, along with Saudi Arabia's partial recovery of damaged oil production capacity, the PTA came down and down. As of September 20th, the average price of PTA's domestic spot market was 5180 yuan / ton, down 0.13% from the beginning of the week, down 35.46% from the same period last year. In terms of installations, some factories in this week have been short stopped. The annual output of 1 million tons of PTA in Sichuan chemical plant has been overhauled in September 18th. It has been scheduled to be overhauled for a week. The annual output of 900 thousand tons of PTA plant in Peng Wei Petrochemical has been stopped and overhauled in September 19th for 7 days, so the starting load has been reduced from 97% to 93%. In addition, the factory announced a parking overhaul plan in October.

Part of the downstream weaving factories are not much stocking before the Mid Autumn Festival. The demand for raw materials driven by post holiday materials has been improved. The comprehensive boot rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 79%. Immediately approaching the National Day holiday, the terminal weaving industry will usher in the procurement market before the festival. However, the problems of high inventory, low profits, receivables and other issues are outstanding, and the overall mood is not enough. Judging from the textile industry, the textile index of the business community shows that the textile index in September 20th was 876 points, an increase of 6 points from 870 points at the beginning of the week, a 24.22% decrease from the highest point in the cycle (2018-09-03), up by 22.52% from the lowest point 715 on 2016 17. (Note: cycle 2011-12-01 to date)

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the rise in polyester filament market this week is mainly a chain reaction driven by cost side. The possibility of crude oil recovery is not high in the short term, but there are still many uncertainties. Although PTA has overhauled action, there are many reports on the new capacity of the market, causing concerns about supply, or will suppress the market. In addition, most textile practitioners in the downstream believe that the price increases are short-term actions, and demand has not been fundamentally improved. To sum up, the fundamentals remain bad. It is expected that the market of polyester filament will run weak in the short term.