Analysis Of The Price Trend Of Polyester Bottle In The First Quarter Of 2020

With the temperature rising and spring blossoms, polyester bottles have gone through the first hay of public health events in the first quarter of ---2020. Compared with the same period last year, the market price dropped sharply first. Some new changes have also taken place in the market supply pattern. The cash flow of bottle flakes is "thriving" in polyester products, and the inventory of the manufacturers is basically smooth.

Market price:

In the first quarter of 2020, the highest price in East China market was 6600 yuan / ton, which appeared in January 7th. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 1325 yuan / ton, or 16.72%. The lowest price appeared in March 30th of 5100 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, the price fell by 3450 yuan / ton, or 40.35%. In January, the average price of the East China market was near 6580 yuan / ton, while the average price in March dropped to 5610 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, public health emergencies in China greatly inhibited the increase of terminal demand. At the beginning of February 3rd, MEG and PTA fell, and spot closing fell 865 yuan / ton and 370 yuan / ton respectively. The market price of polyester bottle fell by 200 yuan / ton before the holiday. In March 6th, the negotiations between OPEC and Russia cut production failed. After the opening of March 9th, the oil price collapsed almost to the waist. The raw material terminal PTA and MEG are down again, and the focus of the bottle film market is down 300 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Polyester cost ends both hit a new low in history, dragging down the price of flask fell below the lowest level in nearly fifteen years.

Cash flow:

As illustrated above, in recent five years, the profit margins of PET bottles have remained at around 260 yuan / ton except 2018. In the first quarter of 2020, the profit margin of PET bottle was at -143.98 yuan / ton, which appeared in January 13th, and the profit value was at 765.55 yuan / ton, which appeared in March 30th. The average profit in the first quarter was 287.15 yuan / ton, an increase of 60.39 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year, an increase of 26.63%. Basically, under the influence of public health events and Russia's crude oil price war, the cost end dropped to a historical low point, resulting in relatively abundant profit.

Supply side:

In the first quarter of 2020, Chongqing wankai 600 thousand tons of equipment was successfully put into operation, and the production capacity of polyester bottles increased to 11 million 140 thousand tons / year. The average industrial starts in the first quarter was 66.59%, down 10.56 percentage points from the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, the market of polyester bottle chips basically stagnated. After the holiday, affected by public health events, the domestic logistics industry is limited, partly closed at a high speed, and transportation is greatly affected. Bottle stock manufacturers continue to accumulate inventory, and gradually reduce production and reduce losses. Factory inventory high in about 30 days, local for more than 40 days. With the development of public health events becoming stable, coupled with relevant policies to encourage resumption and resumption of production, logistics has slowly recovered, and the speed of shipments inventory has been relatively faster, and the number of shipments has been increasing. By the end of 3, most of the stock of PET bottle producers were near 20 days, slightly higher or slightly lower.

Outlook for future market:

Raw materials: PTA high processing fee support, the recent set of devices to restart, the supply side further expanded in April. In the downstream, the global economy and consumption continued to deteriorate due to overseas public health problems. The export orders in Europe and the United States were delayed and orders were cancelled. It is difficult to deliver the grey cloth, and the intention of the weaving factory to reduce production or stop production is enhanced. PTA supply and demand contradiction scissors difference or continue to expand, it is expected that the April PTA library will exceed March. The supply side of the plant is 600 thousand tons higher than that of the plant. The Dalian Yisheng 350 thousand tons will be put into operation in the first half of this month. There are plans for upgrading the bottle making industry. At present, the supply is greater than market demand. Downstream demand, terminal soft drinks enterprises in the two quarter of the supply of goods has basically been locked in the first quarter, with the decline of bottle price volatility, small and medium terminal enterprises bargain, stock of raw materials is high, new demand or limited. With the stability of emergencies, the domestic demand groups for terminal demand improved significantly in late April. In terms of foreign trade, due to the impact of overseas public health events, the number of exports decreased by 35.54% in the 1-2 months compared with that in April, and the export orders in March will be greatly reduced. At present, crude oil, the uncertainty is whether Saudi Arabia and Russia cut production, such as the reduction of production, the number of production cuts can offset the extent of demand reduction? From the basic point of view, PET bottles in April probably remain at a low level, and we still need to pay more attention to the development of oil producing countries and overseas public health events.