Global Cotton Stocks Hit A 5 Year High

As consumption and trade were hit during the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global cotton stocks will reach the highest level in 5 years, and cotton prices will fall to a 12 year low at the end of the year.

Since the beginning of 2020, the closure of global retail outlets and the drop in orders of textile mills have led to a 30% decline in cotton futures prices.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) recently predicted that the average cotton price at the end of the A index (AIndex) 2019/20 will be set at 72.8 cents per pound. The A index is forecast to average 58.8 cents per pound at the end of 2020/21, slightly higher than last month's forecast of 56.9 cents per pound.

Even so, it will remain the lowest cotton price since the global financial crisis in 2007-8, when prices fell to 49 cents per pound.

In June, ICAC released the updated cotton (CottonThisMonth) update report this month: Unfortunately, the expected impact of the new crown pneumonia pandemic on this season seems to be developing in a way that we are worried about.

Consumption is expected to be 23 million tons in 2019/20, 11.3% less than last year. Although global trade volume dropped by 9.6% to 8 million 340 thousand tons.

It is expected that output will grow by 2% to 26 million 200 thousand tons, and inventories may surge to 21 million 750 thousand tons, reaching the highest level in 5 years.

China is the largest cotton producer in the world and is expected to drop 12% to 7 million 250 thousand tons. India is expected to fall 12% to 4 million 750 thousand tons. Other countries that experience pain index include Pakistan (-7%), Turkey (-8%), Vietnam (-8%), Brazil (-11%) and Bangladesh (-25%).

It is estimated that the volume of global cotton trade in 2019/20 will drop to 8 million 340 thousand tons, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. According to the IMF's prediction of the current economic recovery, it is expected that the recovery of the upcoming 2020/21 season will remain stable.

ICAC pointed out that with the containment measures to control the spread of the new crown pneumonia, cotton consumption and trade have been reduced, and all the major consumer countries have been hit by the wave of retail trade. These losses will lead to a reduction in orders and a factory closure measure to reduce the spread of the new crown pneumonia.

Last month, ICAC, one of the 5 associations representing cotton and textile industry, called for fair and fair trade practices in the global supply chain during the new crown pneumonia pandemic.