Peripheral Long Short Stalemate, Cotton Market Up And Down Less

Last week (August 3-9), long short stalemate in the periphery of cotton market, futures soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal adjusted frequently, rising first and then falling, spot soybean oil continued to rise, soybean meal was still in a downward trend, cotton oil and cottonseed meal were difficult to follow up. Due to the shortage of cottonseed resources, the price of cottonseed continues to rise, and the processing costs of oilseed mills remain high, which further supports the market of cotton by-products. The overall performance is that the market is still in the process of further adjustment.

Cottonseed: lack of market resources, prices continue to rise

Last week, when the cotton seed department was in short supply, it was difficult to find vehicles for Xinjiang cottonseed transportation to the mainland, supporting its high price rise. However, due to the poor operating profit of oil and cotton plants, it is difficult for most manufacturers to purchase large quantities, which limits the rise of cottonseed. It is still a long time before the new cottonseed is put on the market. Before the new seed is put on the market, the inventory of cottonseed may remain at a high level, and the adjustment range shall pay close attention to the support of downstream cotton by-products.

Cotton oil: soybean oil growth slowed down, cotton oil continued to rise strongly

Soybean oil futures rose steadily since February to the highest level on Tuesday. At the weekend, the price of first-class soybean oil in coastal areas reached 6430-6550 yuan / ton, 10-70 yuan / ton higher than the previous week. Due to the shortage of cottonseed resources, the high price continued to rise, and the cost continued to increase. In addition, the operating rate of the oil and cotton plant was limited, and there was no pressure on the cotton oil inventory. The price increase of the manufacturers was much higher than that of the spot soybean oil. At present, there are a large number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong, the operating rate of soybean oil plants is extremely high, and the potential negative factors around the oil and fat are still existing. In the future, it is advisable to ship the products at the price to avoid risks. It is still a long time before the new seeds come into the market. In reference to the trend of the peripheral bulk oil, the trend of strong cotton oil shock before the new grinding season has a high probability.

Cottonseed meal: soybean meal continued to fall, cottonseed meal rose and fell

Last week, soybean meal futures rebounded slowly. At the weekend, 43% protein soybean meal prices in coastal areas reached 2840-2940 yuan / ton, down 10-80 yuan / ton from the previous week. Soybean meal futures and spot fell, dragging cotton meal market. At present, there is a large amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong, and the operating rate of soybean oil plants is extremely high, and the potential negative factors still exist. Moreover, cottonseed meal and soybean meal have no price difference advantage, which limits the development of cotton meal market, with some falling. However, due to the shortage of cottonseed goods, the rising price, the high cost, the limited operating rate of oil and cotton mills, the shortage of cottonseed inventory, and the current high season of aquaculture, cottonseed meal demand is fair, boosting the quotation in some regions. In the external long short factors coexist, cotton meal volatility is difficult to stabilize, rise and fall each other. It is still some time before the new cottonseed meal is listed. In the future, under the premise of referring to the trend of soybean meal, cottonseed meal will continue to maintain the trend of easy rise and difficult to fall in combination with its actual supply and demand situation, and the trend of short-term or current narrow range shock adjustment.

Cotton linter: continuous competition between supply and demand, market stability

Last week, affected by the shortage of raw materials and other factors, the high price of cottonseed continued to rise, and the processing cost of oil cotton factory increased again. In addition, the output rate of cotton linter was low, and there was no inventory pressure in the market, so the manufacturers kept the price for shipment. However, affected by the low demand of chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants, the purchasing quantity of cotton linter is not so good. Market competition between supply and demand, cotton linter up and down dilemma, market stability. It is still some time before the new seeds come into the market. If the demand situation is difficult to improve, cotton linter or maintain a stable situation.