Interpretation: In August 2020, CPI Rose Slightly And PPI Continued To Narrow Year On Year

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI and PPI data for August 2020. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

　　 1、 CPI rose both month on month and year-on-year, and the prices of some goods and services rose more

In August, all localities actively implemented the Party Central Committee's decision-making and deployment, coordinated the work of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, achieved remarkable results, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced. On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 1.4%, 1.4% lower than that of the previous month, which affected the rise of CPI by about 0.31%. In food, due to the low stock of laying hens, the low egg production rate in summer, and the coming of school and Mid Autumn Festival, the price of eggs rose by 11.3%, 7.3% more than that of the previous month; due to the influence of high temperature and rainfall, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 6.4%, 0.1 percentage point higher; the supply of pork improved, but the demand continued to increase, and the price still rose by 1.2%, The price of beef, mutton, chicken and duck rose in varying degrees, ranging from 0.5% to 1.4%; the price of fresh fruit continued to drop by 0.4%, and the decline rate was narrowed by 4.0%. Non food prices rose 0.1% from flat last month, the first rise since February this year, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.09%. Among non food items, summer travel increased, and the prices of air tickets and hotel accommodation increased by 7.3% and 2.1% respectively; affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 0.9% and 1.0% respectively.

From a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 2.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the food price rose by 11.2%, 2.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI rise by about 2.33 percentage points. In food, affected by the base number of last year's comparison, the price of pork rose by 52.6%, a sharp decrease of 33.1 percentage points compared with the previous month; the price of fresh vegetables rose by 11.7%, and the increase was expanded by 3.8%; the prices of beef and mutton rose by 14.4% and 9.7%, respectively, and the prices of chicken and duck decreased by 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively, which was the first drop in recent three years; the prices of fresh fruits and eggs continued to rise 8% and 12. 4% respectively. Non food prices rose by 0.1% from flat last month, which affected CPI to rise by 0.04%. Among non food products, the price of health care increased by 1.5%, the price of transportation and communication decreased by 3.9%, of which the price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 14.0% and 15.7% respectively. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, the same increase as last month.

It is estimated that among the 2.4% year-on-year increase in August, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 2.1%, and the impact of new price increase was about 0.3%.

　 2. CPI fell down on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year decline narrowed

In August, industrial production continued to improve, market demand continued to recover, and the prices of crude oil, iron ore, non-ferrous metals and other international bulk commodities continued to rise, driving the prices of domestic industrial products to continue to rise. On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 0.4%, and the rise fell by 0.1%; the price of means of living rose by 0.1%, the same as that of the previous month. According to the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there were 17 industrial sectors with price increase, 4 less than the previous month, 18 decreased, 3 increased, and 5 flat increased 1. Affected by the change of international crude oil price, the price rise of oil related industries slowed down. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 3.6%, and the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry increased by 1.2%, with the increase falling by 8.4% and 2.2% respectively. Among other major industries, ferrous metal mining and dressing industry increased by 4.3% and 1.6%, while ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 1.5% and 0.4% respectively. Nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries increased by 3.0% and fell by 0.1 percentage point; agricultural and sideline food processing industry increased by 0.6% and decreased by 0.4%. In addition, the prices of coal mining and washing industry, gas production and supply industry decreased from up to down by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI decreased by 2.0%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 3.0%, and the decrease rate was narrowed by 0.5%; the price of means of living rose by 0.6%, and the increase fell by 0.1%. Among the major industries, oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 25.2% and 2.6% respectively; oil, coal and other fuel processing industry decreased by 16.7% and 0.3% respectively; ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 2.5% and 2.1% respectively. The coal mining and washing industry decreased by 8.0% and expanded by 0.6%, while the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 7.6% and expanded by 0.1%. In addition, the price of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry increased by 3.4% and 2.7% respectively.

It is estimated that in the 2.0% year-on-year decline in August, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 0.1 percentage point, and the impact of new price rise was about - 2.1 percentage point.