Industrial Enterprises Are Now Divided. How Is The Economic Performance Of China'S Chemical Fiber Industry In 2018?

China's textile and chemical fiber industry has been running smoothly in 2018, but the international situation is complicated and changeable, oil price fluctuates greatly, Sino US trade frictions gradually escalate, RMB depreciation and other factors also increase the operational risk of the industry.

In particular, polyester polyester industry was affected by crude oil price and PTA futures and other factors, which fluctuated in the second half year.

Aside from the 4 quarter, from the overall situation of the whole year, the production of chemical fiber industry in 2018 has maintained a good growth, and the growth rate of efficiency has stabilized at a relatively high level, which has become an important support for the economic growth of the textile industry.

However, the operation of various sub sectors has been divided, and the polyester and nylon industry has performed well. The viscose fiber, acrylic fiber and spandex industry has been running more difficult, and there has been division among enterprises, and resources are further concentrated on the dominant enterprises.

In 2018, China's chemical fiber production was 50 million 110 thousand and 900 tons.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the production of chemical fiber in China was 50 million 110 thousand and 900 tons in 2018, up 7.68% from the same period.

Among them, the production of polyester fiber was 40 million 148 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 8.47% over the same period, the output of nylon was 3 million 303 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 5.28% over the same period, and the production of viscose staple fiber was 3 million 770 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 7.94% over the same period last year.

China's chemical fiber industry has entered the "new normal" since 2012, the output growth slowed down, and backward production capacity was accelerated.

After entering the "13th Five-Year", China's chemical fiber industry continued to push forward structural reform of supply side, while the industry continued to be accompanied by the elimination of backward production capacity.

In 2012 ~2018, China's chemical fiber output increased by 4.55% annually, and the growth rate was less than 1/2 of the peak year of output growth.

In 2018, the production and sales of polyester and nylon industry were flourishing, and the average operating rate of the industry was relatively high in the past two years.

Among them, the operation rate of polyester filament industry remained high, especially in the peak season of direct spinning filament, and over 90% in the peak season, and the operating rate in the off-season was above 80%.

Spandex industry due to the release of a large number of new capacity, the output increased considerably over the same period.

The starting rate of viscose industry and acrylic fiber industry is obviously lower than that of 2017. Among them, the average operation rate of acrylic fiber industry is about 60%, and the two industry start up rate is relatively low in the past two years.

From the demand side, the downstream demand increased year by year.

In addition to non-woven fabrics, the output of most downstream products of chemical fiber has increased to varying degrees, and the rate of start-up in downstream industries has increased significantly compared with that in 2017.

The export volume of China's chemical fiber products has increased by about 6%.

According to the prediction of China Chemical Fiber Association, the import of chemical fiber in China in 2018 was about 940 thousand tons, an increase of about 2% over the same period last year.

Imports of products should be concerned with polyester staple fibers. The import volume increased by nearly 20% over the same period last year. It should be related to the restriction of domestic recycled raw materials and make up for the shortage of recycled fiber.

Moreover, the raw and regenerated products of polyester staple can not be distinguished by tax numbers.

It is understood that a large proportion of the import of polyester staple fiber is recycled polyester staple fiber.

The export volume of chemical fiber has increased by about 6%, and its export volume is about 4 million 300 thousand tons.

The impact of Sino US trade friction has not yet fully manifested. The export volume of the three products, polyester filament, polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber, has maintained a good growth rate.

The price of synthetic fiber market is higher than that of last year.

The price of the synthetic fiber market is higher than that of 2017, driven by the fluctuation of oil price.

Especially polyester polyester industry, affected by the price of crude oil and PTA futures, there was a "roller coaster" market in the second half of this year.

Nylon market is relatively stable.

Viscose staple market is affected by cotton price suppression and the release of new capacity.

The total profit is 39 billion 389 million yuan.

In 2018, the added value of China's chemical fiber industry increased by 7.6% over the same period last year, 1.8 percentage points faster than in 2017, and the main business income was 798 billion 958 million yuan, an increase of 12.42% over the same period last year. The total realized profit was 39 billion 389 million yuan, up 10.31% over the same period last year.

Chemical fiber industry has become an important support for the economic growth of the textile industry.

The industry's deficit was 18.23%, an increase of 5.21 percentage points from 2017, and the deficit of deficit companies also increased by 37.6% over the same period last year, reflecting the continued polarization of corporate profitability.

According to the industry, the total profit of the polyester industry is 21 billion yuan, up 24.47% over the same period last year. The total profit of the nylon industry is 4 billion 200 million yuan, up 1.65% over the same period last year. The data of the man-made fiber industry need to be studied, among which the viscose fiber industry is located near the capital loss line.

In 2018, the quality of chemical fiber industry was generally good, but it was lower than that in 2017.

Among them, the main business profit margin was 4.93%, a slight decrease of 0.09 percentage points compared with the same period. The turnover rate of total assets was basically flat with that of 2017, but the turnover rate of finished products decreased. The proportion of sales expenses and financial expenses in the three items decreased.

The increase of industry profits is mainly attributable to the increase of product prices and the follow-up of downstream demand from the market level, but its essence is that the supply side structural reform has achieved certain results, and the relationship between supply and demand has been improved. In addition, the development of new products is also accelerating, and the brand, quality and variety have been promoted.

In 2019, the economic efficiency of the industry was expected to be weaker than that of 2018.

In 2019, the chemical fiber industry, especially polyester polyester industry, is still in the peak stage of production. The increase in supply is not optimistic relative to demand, making the contradiction between supply and demand in 2019 will gradually become more prominent.

At the same time, due to the large base in 2018, part of the operational indicators will slow down in 2019.

However, considering the high concentration of the industry and the weakening of the disorderly competition in the market, it is expected that the decline rate of the indicators will be relatively limited. It is not ruled out that there will be a need for stimulus in the second round of environmental inspections in 2019, the pfer of textile and dyeing industry to the central region, and stock preparation.

In 2019, the average operating rate of the chemical fiber industry was predicted to decline compared with that in 2018. The output will continue to maintain a growth rate of about 5% in recent years. The volume of exports will continue to increase slightly; the economic efficiency will be weaker than that in 2018; the gap between the competitiveness of enterprises will further widen, and the head effect and subdivision should continue to appear.