PTA Fell 600 Points On Two Days, Polyester Production And Marketing Continued To Slump.

In the past two days, the PTA futures market is very "watching". Under the influence of various hearsay, the game of disk capital has intensified.

First of all, a letter on July 2nd night triggered a PTA high diving, trading volume and lighten up volume both reached a record high. The volume between the plates was more than 6% days in volume. Today, there are rumors that domestic futures investors are being supervised, triggering PTA instant down, and the main 1909 contract down 5.01% to 6068, lighten up 70 thousand hands, the volume is enlarged to 8 million 390 thousand hands, and continue to refresh the highest record in history.

Two consecutive days of volume turnover, leaving two high bar on the Japanese K-line, down more than 10%, forming a dark cloud top, the long main seats for two consecutive days reduced more than 70 thousand hand. Spot talks with the futures trading down, but in the afternoon, the sales volume is fresh, and the delivery is down to 1909 of the contract 450. Recently, PTA staged roller coaster market, the 15 trading days rose more than 1500 points, after nearly 8 months high, just two days and plunged nearly 600 points, the volume of transactions were repeatedly refreshed.

It's rare to see underground in a week. Look at these amazing changes in the PTA industry chain:

PTA: mainstream suppliers are still controlling liquidity.

Mainstream suppliers are still controlling liquidity, but they are just starting to release goods at a high level, but this is also logical. In terms of turnover, the 4 day basis difference has weakened, around +500, but the mainstream supplier's selling price is 6760, still increasing 20 compared with the previous day. In short, the mainstream suppliers are still controlling liquidity, and there are no signs of release either. From the perspective of the overall interests of the factory, their intention is to have a processing fee and no initiative to smash the market, and the goods they have grasped or have hedged or hedged.

Polyester: there are signs of reducing load, and production and marketing slump will last for some time.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and marketing 4 light maintenance, to 3 p.m. near the average estimated at 1-2. Anticipation. On the 4 day, we heard that the output of Huarun bottles was 1 million 600 thousand tons, which was reduced by 20%. From this point of view, polyester has signs of reducing load, which needs attention in the short term. However, the recent cash flow level of the bottle has not been good for some time (beginning in early June). Besides raw materials and accidents, there are still some reasons for its own production. The production of individual factories still has its own reasons, and the bottle production capacity accounts for less than 20% of the total capacity of the polyester plant. The remaining varieties, filament and staple cash flow are still available (except for the two day profit of the bomb drop a little), and the inventory is very low, and the production capacity is weak. Generally speaking, the polyester link can still be carried out in the short term, and the whole operation can still be guaranteed, but we still need to pay attention to the start-up of the bottle factory.

However, the release of raw materials and release of negative sentiment, plus the terminal still has many raw materials inventory, terminal weaving short-term replenishment is not very strong, polyester production and marketing downturn need to continue for a period of time.

Weaving links: high price raw materials, suppression of procurement

The rational transmission of the whole industry chain should be: terminal customers order, traders order for sourcing, weaving factory shipment to inventory, raw material factory to sell silk and reduce stock. If every link can be smoothly released, market supply and demand is expected to reach a balance.

Ideal is beautiful, reality is backbone! Raw material price increases superimposed on the macro good release, although to a certain extent, boosted the confidence of the market, stimulated traders' mentality of hoarding goods, and also drove the conventional products to go on the market. But the fact is that the good news that the us no longer imposed new tariffs on Chinese products is coming, but the bulk orders that had been expected were not yet landed.

Although the market is getting warmer, it is still a drop in the bucket compared with the previous high inventory. The worry of weaving enterprises has not been reversed as expected. At least in the short term, many textile owners are looking at the stock in the warehouse or stocking the raw materials for a month or so. Upstream PTA downside has a greater impact on market sentiment. Downstream textile enterprises are mostly watching and digesting raw material stocks, stopping purchasing, high-frequency inventory data on finished products inventory, Shengze grey fabric inventory for 7.3 days and 40 days, and 6 mid month high 42.5 days.

For the future market, as polyester factories reduce production calls again, downstream polyester production and marketing rapidly slump, coupled with the volume of business behind the capital game is still increasing, it is recommended to wait and see, avoiding risk. (source: Yide futures, cloth factory)