The Lifting Of High Pressure In 2021 Science And Technology Innovation Board "Hong Kong Stock Market" May Aggravate Polarization

"At present, the market style is indeed a group of institutions, and small market value companies like us have received relatively less attention on funds." A scientific and technological innovation board listed company told reporters frankly. Its shares fell more than 40% in the fourth quarter of last year.

Since the beginning of 2021, the A-share has gone out of the continuous rise in the index, but most of the companies have fallen successively, especially in large cap stocks with funds. This trend has already been shown in the science and technology innovation board, which takes the lead in comprehensively implementing the registration system.

According to the statistics of Guosheng securities, in 2020, the performance of science and technology innovation board is obviously divided. The rise and fall ratio of science and technology innovation board stocks is close to 1:2, with more than 20% of science and technology innovation board increasing by more than 30%, and the shares with a decline of more than 30% also account for more than 40%.

At the same time, the advantages of Kechuang 50 component stocks are very obvious. The cumulative median growth rate of Kechuang 50 component stocks is 33.93%, which is far higher than the overall median of the science and technology innovation board - 19.77%. About 24% of the scientific and technological innovation 50 component stocks have increased by more than 100%. The fund of science and technology innovation board is further concentrated in high-quality assets.

Industrial strategy Wang Delun's team also pointed out on January 13 that the "new and old" growth differentiation and "U.S. equity" of the science and technology innovation board came earlier than other plates. The structure of traders is relatively optimized, the reform of listing and delisting system is in the forefront, and the growth companies survive the fittest at a high speed. The trading volume of the top 10% of the companies has reached 72.6% and that of the top 10% of the gem has reached 50.8%. Looking back, the science and Technology Innovation Board will be greatly divided, and there will be both "bull stocks" and a number of "fairy stocks".

The large cap stocks with funds have already shown up in the science and technology innovation board, which takes the lead in comprehensively implementing the registration system. Visual China

Significant polarization of the science and Technology Innovation Board

According to wind data, as of January 13, the median market value of 217 listed companies on the science and technology innovation board was 8.778 billion yuan. Among the 108 companies with market value lower than the median, 24 companies' stock prices rose in the past year, while 35 of the 109 companies with market value higher than the median rose. About 61% of the 41 companies listed on the science and technology innovation board with a decline of more than 50% in the past year have a market value of less than 10 billion yuan.

Generally speaking, listed companies with higher market value are more sought after by funds.

"Similar to the trend of the main board, the science and technology innovation board also shows a very obvious head effect, that is, the so-called Matthew effect. The leading enterprises in good industries attract more capital and transaction volume, while the tail companies do not have much capital attention. I think this kind of differentiation is inevitable, and it is also a manifestation of the maturity of the market, because more and more funds are entering the market through institutional investors. For institutional funds, it is definitely to buy the top enterprises rather than the tail enterprises. Then the greater the proportion of institutional funds, the more serious the differentiation. " Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

According to the data of Tianfeng strategy, compared with that in 2019, the median rise and fall rate of new shares on the first day of listing on the science and technology innovation board rose from 97.9% to 143.6% in 2020, and the sentiment of fund speculation on the first day of listing continued to increase; from the perspective of the performance of new shares on the fifth day of listing, the maximum withdrawal range was basically flat, but the median rise and fall rate of 5-day listing in 2020 was lower than that in 2019, which also indicated that the short-term fund speculation sentiment was in the After the first day, it gradually returned to rationality.

On the whole, there are still good returns from new stocks, but the withdrawal of small market value companies after IPO is relatively greater.

"The scale of listed companies on the science and technology innovation board is generally small, the market value is relatively small, and the circulating share capital is relatively small. Therefore, in the initial stage of listing, the imbalance between supply and demand leads to excessive virtual high stock prices and even complete bubble. The smaller the market value and the smaller the share capital, the more serious the bubble of stock price will be. However, this can only maintain a short-term virtual high. With the continuous expansion of the science and technology innovation board, the small market value stocks without enough growth support will fall from the high stock price, and those companies with relatively large market value and moderate stock price rise will even have room for continuous rise or supplementary rise. The listed companies with large and small market capitalization on the science and technology innovation board tend to be differentiated in the follow-up market trend. " Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Finance and securities of Wuhan University of science and technology, told the 21st century economic reporter.

In his opinion, for many new economy enterprises in the growth stage on the science and technology innovation board, the operating income, R & D investment scale and market value, rather than the profit level, can relatively reflect their investment value.

The pressure of lifting the ban in the middle of the year may aggravate the differentiation

On July 22, 2019, the first batch of sci tech Innovation Board companies were listed on the stock market, and the scientific and technological innovation board officially set sail. Last July, the science and technology innovation board ushered in the first lifting peak, and the scale of the three-day ban lifting from July 22 to July 24 reached more than 260 billion yuan. According to the estimation of GF strategy, the market value of the science and technology innovation board in July of 2021-2023 will be 253.938 billion yuan / 280.595 billion yuan / 173.980 billion yuan.

"My personal guess is that, generally speaking, most institutional investors will cash out after the lifting of the ban, so the number of institutional investors will decrease in the middle of last year." An insider of a listed company on the science and Technology Innovation Board said frankly.

"Generally speaking, the regulatory authorities are quite strict with regard to the reduction of large shareholders' holdings. There are also many big shareholders who are optimistic about the company and are willing to grow together with the company. They are determined to be in the long run. But for VC / PE, when the enterprise is hatched and put into the stock market, when the stock price reaches a certain expected target, it will choose to withdraw and continue to do private equity investment. There are many new economy enterprises in the science and technology innovation board. In the early stage of development, more venture capital will be introduced. VC / PE accounts for about 30% of the enterprises in the science and technology innovation board, which is higher than other sectors. The reduction of the scientific and Technological Innovation Board will be normalized in the future, and we should treat it with an ordinary mind. " Mr Tung said.

The analysis results of the small cap research team of open source securities on the data of lifting the ban since 2017 show that there are obvious relative negative returns of individual stocks seven days before the lifting of the ban, and with the approach of the lifting date, the relative negative returns become more and more significant, and after the lifting date, the relative returns return to positive rapidly. That is, generally speaking, the lifting of the restricted shares will make the stock price under short-term pressure, but this is more emotional disturbance, which can be quickly digested by the market.

"But from the experience of the science and technology innovation board, the large-scale lifting of the ban on individual stocks and plates will form greater pressure." It pointed out that in 2020, the average proportion of the scale of the monthly ban lifting of the science and technology innovation board in the circulation market value is 15.3% (other sectors are below 2%), of which, in July, it is as high as 78.8%. Under the pressure of a large amount of lifting the ban, the return of individual stocks of the science and technology innovation board significantly underperformed the market, and within 7 days after the lifting of the ban, the stock prices of the stocks released from the ban still have obvious negative returns relative to the Kechuang 50 index. The large-scale lifting of the ban not only has a direct impact on individual stocks, but also has a significant pressure on the overall science and technology innovation board. From July 22, 2020 to December 25, 2020, the science and technology innovation 50 index decreased by 9.8%, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, gem index and medium and small board index increased by 1.9% / 2.6% / 2.6% / 2.6% respectively.

According to the statistics of Ni Geng and Dai Kang in the annual strategy of GF strategy, only 3% of the shares in the scientific and technological innovation board have been lifted, while the scale of the one-year lifting of the ban exceeds 340 billion yuan (PE / VC has a strong driving force and a high proportion). It believes that in the "restless" stage with good market liquidity, the science and technology innovation board may face a large "reduction window" period.

From the marginal change of the announcement of the reduction in the past two weeks, the actual progress of the reduction has some signs of acceleration. Since December 28, 2020, there have been 24 new share reduction events in the science and technology innovation board, involving 10 enterprises. According to the closing price on January 8, the accumulated reduction scale is about 3.996 billion yuan (as of the end of November, the accumulated reduction scale has just exceeded 10 billion yuan). Among them, the share reduction of the new generation information technology industry is relatively large. Among the 10 newly increased reduction enterprises, 4 computers (including 2.916 billion yuan from Jinshan office, accounting for an absolute proportion) and 3 electronic industries. In addition, the number of inquiry reduction cases increased and the scale accounted for a large proportion.

It believes that under the deduction of market differentiation, small and medium-sized market capitalization will be more active in the future. In the past two weeks, there were 6 enterprises with less than 10 billion yuan of share reduction.

In 2021, the lifting of the ban on the science and Technology Innovation Board will be concentrated in July to August, and the impact on the overall science and technology innovation board at that time should also be paid attention to. The coming of the lifting of the ban may further aggravate the differentiation of the first and last valuation of the science and technology innovation board.

Under the situation of differentiation, how to grasp the investment opportunities?

"I think that in 2021, we can allocate industry leading stocks or science and technology innovation board funds to the science and technology innovation board. However, as there are many enterprises in the growth stage of the board as a whole, the allocation proportion should not be too high. I think that about 20% of the total allocation position is about the same." Yang Delong said.

Zhang Qiyao, strategic analyst of Guoxin Securities, also pointed out that in 2020, the number of public funds raised on the science and Technology Innovation Board will increase to 62, with a total scale of 109.355 billion yuan, and the categories of funds will become increasingly rich. "Moreover, the science and technology innovation board has been officially incorporated into the core series of indexes such as Shanghai Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 and Shanghai Stock 380. On the one hand, the science and technology innovation board is getting more continuous allocation of broad-based ETFs. On the other hand, the" last mile "of foreign investment allocation of science and technology innovation board has been officially opened. In the future, the internal and external incremental funds of the science and technology innovation board can be expected together. "